Indian Institute of Technology Madras (IIT Madras) study has found that access to non-farm business activities and irrigation were major factors that reduced drought-induced migration among rural farm households.

The study found that there was no significant evidence of drought-induced migration among households engaged in non-farm business activities and those having access to irrigation, thus proving that participation in non-farm activities and access to irrigation do make a positive difference in the case of drought-affected rural areas.

Although the effect of rainfall and temperature anomalies on migration is well documented, little is known about the impact of climate-change-induced drought on migration among rural farm households in India.

The study was led by Dr. Sabuj Kumar Mandal, faculty, IIT Madras, and Dr. Gauri Sreekumar, Researcher, IIT Madras. The findings were published in the reputed peer-reviewed journal Indian Economic Review (https://doi.org/10.1007/s41775-024-00233-z)

The authors have investigated the impact of drought on out-migration among rural farm households in India. They also research on whether participation in non-farm activities and access to irrigation make any difference.

The Researchers suggested that the Government can augment the rural non-farm sector through schemes such as Aajeevika Grameen Express Yojana and the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act. Similarly, irrigation techniques can be boosted through schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana.

The study also found that Social membership could play a significant role in reducing the number of migrants. Households’ participation in agriculture/milk/other cooperatives, non-government organisations, credit/savings groups, self-help groups, and other such associations could check migration. Farmer-based organisations and more agricultural extension services could be established by the Government.

In this study, the Researchers analyzed Round I (2004-2005) and Round II (2011-2012) data of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) and the impact of drought on the migration among rural farm households was estimated using Difference-in-differences (DiD) method – a statistical technique used in economics and quantitative research to study the differential effect of a treatment group versus a control group in an experiment.

Elaborating on this study, Dr. Sabuj Kumar Mandal, Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, IIT Madras, said, “Unfortunately, rural-urban migrations come with drawbacks. Although there is data to suggest that migration improves the overall well-being of families and the economy, increased rural-urban migrations lead to overpopulation in a particular region, urban poverty, violence, crime, and other societal problems. Excessive rural-urban migration also leads to a decline in rural population, thus affecting agricultural production, land use, food security, etc., which in turn affect sustainable development.”

But migration is not the first choice of agricultural families. Families do try to adapt to drought conditions through various strategies before reluctantly having to migrate. Personal and influential experiences with home and psychological factors also play a big role in the decision to migrate.

Dr. Gauri Sreekumar, Researcher, IIT Madras, said, “Therefore, to reduce the risk imposed by drought, families turn to non-farm activities to reduce the dependence of households’ income on crop yields. The income earned through non-farm activities has a positive impact on households. This income is used to purchase crop and livestock inputs, improve skills and production technologies, thus increasing agricultural productivity. In turn, the income helps to prepare for disasters and compensate for any income loss.”

Irrigation plays an important role in out-migration for farmers. Irrigation contributes to additional water for crops, ensuring food security, stabilising agricultural productivity, and reducing cases of farmer suicide.

Efficient irrigation techniques improve crop production and assist in water conservation, thereby lowering households’ susceptibility to drought and promoting sustainable agriculture methods. As a result, irrigation has emerged as an effective adaptation approach, significantly reducing the migration rates.