The study investigates the impact of future scenarios for the past two storms (namely, Vardah and Madi). These two storms had a different intensity over Bay of Bengal. The recent study in this region shows that the influence of these Tropical Cyclones (TC) may be severe in future climatic conditions. Different future Representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios are investigated in this study. The combined sea level rise (SLR) and high wind intensity in future scenarios has been investigated in the present study for their influence on maximum water level (MWL), wave climate and coastal inundations. The coupled surge and wave models are used to analyze the influence of SLR and wind intensity for different RCPs. The variations of MWL and inundation extent with increase and decrease in wind increment for different RCPs of the TC’s were reported. Overall, for the Far Future RCP 8.5 scenario, the relative percentage of difference (compared to the current scenario) in MWL has increased by 135% for TC Vardah and 180% for TC Madi. Further, the flood area for TC’s Vardah and Madi will increase by 70% and 95% compared to the current scenario. Finally, the study reveals that the extreme wind intensity of the TC’s in future scenarios plays a significant contribution up to 50% in coastal inundations.
Keywords
Storm surge; Tropical cyclones; Climate change; Vardah Cyclone; Madi Cyclone; Sea level rise; Inundation extent; RCP scenarios.